Diesel Slides While Gasoline Ticks Up As Traders Brace For Black Friday Volatility

It’s a mixed start for energy markets on the busiest travel day of the year, following another round of heavy selling on Tuesday. RBOB gasoline futures are trading up around a penny, while ULSD futures are down by around ½ cent in the early going.

The December diesel contract is trading 36 cents lower than it was a week ago as the apparent progress towards a peace agreement in Ukraine and efforts to work around U.S. sanctions on Russian-owned refineries throughout Europe has calmed fears of a diesel shortage this winter.

The Holiday calendar for the CME/Nymex contracts and various fuel pricing services is included below. One twist this year is that Black Friday coincides with expiration for the December RBOB and ULSD contracts which may give a bit of extra volatility as most traders will exit any remaining positions today. Spot market prices posted tonight will carry through the long weekend, but any big moves in futures (like the Black Friday melt down we saw in 2021) may encourage some to change rack postings early.

Chicago diesel basis values continue to get pummeled this week as the winter demand doldrums get ushered in by a large winter storm sweeping the region. Prompt ULSD traded at a 33 cent discount to January futures Tuesday, approaching a 2 year low.

The spread between environmental program taxes in Washington state and California continues to widen with WA credits reaching a record high equivalent to more than 71 cents/gallon while CA credits continue to struggle with oversupply of Renewable Diesel, and surging production of renewable electricity.

BP said it was able to restart a portion of the Olympic pipeline Tuesday after a weeklong shutdown as workers struggled to find the source of a leak in that line. The opened section brings Jet Fuel to the Sea-Tac airport which has been struggling with alternative options during the shutdown.

Serbia is racing to find alternatives to fuel its country as its only refinery, the Russian-Owned 95mb/day NIS refinery, is just a few days away from being forced to wind down operations due to U.S. sanctions.

The tornados that hit the Houston area Monday appear to have stayed far enough north to avoid any refinery damage with no upsets reported to the TCEQ as of this morning.

Sunday is the last day of the official 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season, and there are no tropical systems in sight, meaning the U.S. will avoid a hurricane landfall for the first time in 9 years. For comparison, in just the past 5 years, the U.S. has had 17 hurricane landfalls.