Oil And Product Futures Edge Higher Amid Geopolitical Repricing

Energy futures are drifting higher this morning as the market digests what it would look like if the Iran war concludes without the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which the White House signaled as an option this morning. The May refined product contracts, along with their progenitor Brent and WTI futures, are all up less than 1% in early trading.

It’s expiration day for April RBOB and HO, reminder to look to the change in the May contracts for tomorrow’s physical product pricing. There may be some fireworks in the prompt month spreads, but these will likely only impact those that need to liquidate their outstanding positions to get flat ahead of this afternoon’s expiry.

Sable Offshore Corp., who recently restarted the shipping units in its Southern California system, has committed to selling 20,000 barrels of crude oil per day to Chevron. According to the refiner, the oil will be sent to its El Segundo plant for processing, in what some are calling a rebuffing of the California governor’s hostile stance towards fossil fuels. Current California retail gasoline prices are the highest in the nation.

The EIA reported record high NGL exports last year, and judging by the damage done to facilities in the Gulf states, it wouldn’t be surprising to see U.S. export continue that trend for 2026.

The EPA published its final ruling on the Renewable Fuel Standard for 2026 and 2027, in what is being billed as big win for farmers who grow food for fuel. D4 (biomass-based diesel) and D6 (ethanol) RINs spiked to 3+ year highs yesterday on the release of the official 351 page ruling, which can be perused at leisure here.