Refined Products Currently Trading Higher

Refined products are trading higher for a 3rd straight session with a bounce in equity markets and geopolitical tensions both earning some credit for the recovery.

Middle East violence is flaring again as the ceasefire in Gaza has ended, and the war between the U.S. and the Houthi-Iran partnership continues for a 3rd day.

After several days of unplanned flaring, PBF is reporting to AQMD regulators that it will spend a week on repairs at its Torrance CA refinery. Basis values and rack spreads in the region remain elevated after multiple upsets last week but so far remain well below levels we’ve seen in prior supply crunches.

The EPA granted South Dakota and Ohio’s requests to delay the 1lb RVP waiver removal for another year, leaving 6 midwestern states that are now having to distribute a 7.8lb gasoline to comply with ethanol blending requirements. ONEOK (FKA Magellan) the largest pipeline system in the region, gave an update to shippers Monday saying that 27 out of 28 terminals affected by the lack of the waiver are now ready to load the lower RVP grade. A handful of terminals in Kansas and North Dakota will also be “dual fuel” terminals carrying both 9lb and 7.8lb products.

Too early: The national hurricane center is tracking a low pressure system south east of Bermuda that is given low odds of becoming a cyclone, a full 2.5 months before the Atlantic hurricane season starts. Given the location and low development odds this time of year, the storm should be a non-issue for the U.S. unless high seas disrupt vessel traffic along the East Coast.

An RBN post this morning highlights the ongoing challenges for USGC refiners that have relied on heavy crude grade discounts as imports from Venezuela, Mexico and Canada are all at risk.