Polls Are Predicting A Draw In Crude Oil National Inventories Of About 2.6 Million Barrels

Oil futures are dipping on the lack of any new attacks in the Red Sea this morning and news of the resumption of shipping from some of the larger carriers in the market. Brent and WTI futures are down around 1% to start the second day of one of the slowest trading weeks of the year.

The Department of Energy has delayed the release of their weekly inventory report until tomorrow due to the holidays. Polls are predicting a draw in crude oil national inventories of about 2.6 million barrels, while refined products built an unnamed amount. The American Petroleum Institute will publish their estimates this afternoon.  

Premiums for shipping gasoline and diesel from the Gulf Coast to the New York Harbor market have dropped precipitously this month, going from as high as 18.5 cents over the published tariff to just 2 cents yesterday. While that price dislocation has mostly healed, it may take a little more time for supply in the markets along the Colonial corridor to return to normalized levels.

General tensions in the Middle East seems to be what most traders are keeping an eye on this morning, from aforementioned attacks on shipping vessels by Iran (directly or indirectly) to Israel ratcheting up raids on Gaza refugee camps. The war in Ukraine continues to grind on but its effects on the energy industry are likely fully realized, especially given this morning’s comments from Moscow that Russian crude has found homes in China and India after the West sanctioned its exports.  

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