Energy Markets Quiet As Christmas Eve Trading Drifts Into Low‑Liquidity Territory

Christmas eve trading is off to a quiet start with WTI and RBOB futures clinging to small gains in what would mark their 6th straight session of gains following a 7 session losing streak, while ULSD futures are ticking slightly lower in the early going. The moves are minimal as liquidity dries up with many already on vacation, and others preparing to wrap things up for the week this morning.

NYMEX futures will close early today, will be completely shut tomorrow before reopening evening for the 12/26 session. Futures will trade on a normal schedule Friday, but spot markets will not be assessed, so the spot prices published tonight will carry through the 29th, but rack posters will reserve the right to make changes Friday should the futures market decide to get exciting.

We’ve managed to go almost 2 whole days without a tanker seizure near Venezuela, or an attack on Russia’s shadow fleet or refinery network which is helping markets stay quiet for now. Make no mistake though, the drone war rages on and the U.S. continues to ramp up its presence in the Caribbean so it would appear that both of these situations are due for another flare up soon.

The S&P 500 posted a record close Tuesday following a strong GDP estimate for Q3. The correlation between energy and equity markets has been weak for most of the year and is currently in negative territory so the moves in stocks seem to be having minimal influence on fuel prices at the moment. The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) dropped to its lowest level of the year as investors appear to be either very calm, or perhaps disinterested, as we get into the thick of the holiday season.

The API estimates showed inventory builds across the board last week with gasoline stocks up 1.1 million barrels, and distillates up by 700,000 barrels. Those builds continue the seasonal building trend, albeit at a slower pace than the prior couple of weeks. Crude oil stocks were estimated to increase by 2.4 million barrels as refinery runs ticked lower.

The EIA’s weekly status report is delayed until Monday December 29th due to the temporary federal holidays declared today and Friday. Those holidays aren’t changing banking schedules with banks still open both today and Friday and also won’t influence the schedule for fuel prices.