Markets Managed Strong Recovery Rally

An end to the bear market? In the 10 trading sessions since the Christmas eve meltdown, energy and equity markets have managed a strong recovery rally, ending (many) calls of an extended bear market. Energy futures punched through their November support/January resistance overnight and are currently set up with plenty of room to run to the upside.

While the technical outlook is positive short term, there are still some fundamental hurdles to clear if this run – which for crude oil is in its 8th consecutive trading day – is going to continue.

Tuesday’s API report was said to show large refined product builds of 5.5 million barrels of gasoline, and 10 million barrels of distillates, while crude oil stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels. Those large product builds are in line with what we saw from the DOE report last week, and based the strong rally in futures overnight, it seems traders aren’t expecting a similar build in this morning’s report.

Speaking of the DOE, the EIA continues to take advantage of its fully-funded status during the government shutdown, publishing a note this morning detailing how global energy demand growth is driven by emerging economies in Asia and Africa.

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