Choppy Futures Remain The Theme

Choppy futures action seems to remain the theme of the week as we see energy futures bounce back this morning from yesterday’s losses. Prompt month gas and diesel contracts are up about 1.5 cents per gallon, while American and European crude oil benchmarks tack on about 30 cents per barrel.

Tropical Storm Zeta is expected to break from the Yucatan Peninsula this morning and develop into a hurricane on the warm waters of the Gulf. Its current projected path takes it right over New Orleans with seven of the area’s refineries inside the storm’s error cone. The good news is the system is picking up speed and will pose minimal threat if it can carry on without developing into a major hurricane nor stick around to dump rain behind the Big Easy’s levies.

The EIA published an interesting article about a nearly 30% drop in heating oil prices from 2019 to 2020, the largest YOY drop since 2014-2015. The price collapse earlier this year will lead to 10% decreased expenditure on home heating in the Northeast.

Futures have stemmed off a technical breakdown so far this morning as they attempt to make up for yesterday’s drop. The deck seems stacked against the energy complex with rising coronavirus cases, stimulus uncertainty, and overseas oil production coming back online. Daily charts warn of a six cent, short-term regression if refined product futures can’t retain some buying strength while the weekly charts offer room for a much more devastating 50 cent drop, returning to prices not seen since April.

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