The Latest Warmer-Than-Expected Winter Has Driven Natural Gas Prices To The Lowest Level Seen Since The NG Futures

It’s a mixed bag for energy futures so far this morning with RBOB and prompt month WTI trading slightly higher while HO and Brent futures drift lower. A potential ceasefire in Gaza, continued shipping strife in the Red Sea, and attempts to avoid a partial government shutdown are what the markets are watching this morning. Material developments on any of those three fronts might be enough for prices to decide what they want to do today.

The Kremlin has announced a ban on gasoline exports that will last for six months, earlier this morning, in order to combat domestic fuel shortages and high pump prices. The announcement comes on the heels of repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, the resulting downtime from which cut throughput rates by an estimated 380,000 barrels per day.

The EIA published a comprehensive article this morning detailing all-things-RINs and why they’ve cratered since the beginning of the year. While the administration breaks down the effects of feedstock prices and projects a consistent increased in renewable diesel production, there are no quips about what, if any, changes might be coming for the Renewable Fuel Standard.

The latest warmer-than-expected winter has driven natural gas prices to the lowest level seen since the NG futures contract began trading back in 1990. The increased oil production, of which natural gas is a byproduct, has flooded the market, often resulting in voluntary disposal of excess through the process called flaring. This is great news for consumers, bad news for producers who are forced to cut production, which succeeded in buoying prices, albeit temporarily.

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