Crude Rebounds As Iran Strike Risks And RIN Prices Shake Markets

Crude oil futures are attempting to claw back a small piece of this week’s losses this morning. Prompt month WTI is trading back above $90 per barrel while Brent is pushing towards $97 after both benchmarks shed roughly 5% during yesterday's session. Gasoline and diesel futures are following crude higher in sympathy, both adding on 6 cents per gallon in pre-market trading.

This week’s selloff was driven by another wave of "we're almost there" headlines on the Iran deal, but overnight missile strikes from the US and drone strikes from Iran are threatening to stall whatever progress there may be. Secretary Rubio's "a few more days" comment from Tuesday remains the closest thing to an official timeline anyone has offered, but the gap between U.S. and Iranian positions on enriched uranium custody and Strait of Hormuz transit fees seems impossible to close.

Look for additional volatility this afternoon following the DOE numbers (due out at 11 central), and keep an eye out for any official readout from today's Cabinet meeting at the White House. Whether that meeting produces a meaningful update on the Iran framework or another round of "about two weeks," market reaction will tell us how much patience traders have left for negotiating whiplash.

The D4 (read: RD, Bio) and D6 (ethanol) RIN values have continued setting record high prices this week. The EPA’s final rule on the Renewable Fuel Standard for 2026 and 2027 has obligated parties worried there won’t be enough RINs to cover the record RVO mandates, despite burgeoning renewable diesel production.