News Of Oil Tanker Seized By Iranian Forces
Energy prices are coming under pressure for a 3rd straight day, although so far the theme of the sell-off has been bend, don’t break. News that an oil tanker had been seized by Iranian forces near the world’s most strategic waterway, had buyers step in Tuesday morning after an early wave of selling had the energy complex looking poised for a big drop. Reports this morning that the tanker had been released seems to have calmed fears of an immediate escalation that could disrupt supplies and has WTI trading back below $70.
Daily and weekly charts continue to suggest that prices have likely topped out after a 9 month rally, and the July lows of $2.07 for RBOB and $1.96 for ULSD look like the near term target to the downside.
The API reported inventory draws across the board last week, but even a decline of nearly 6 million barrels of gasoline wasn’t able to help prices sustain an overnight rally attempt. Oil stocks were said to decline by 879k barrels, while diesel was down 717k on the week. The EIA’s weekly stats should be out at 9:30 central.
Coffeyville Resources announced it was pausing its Renewable Diesel production at its Wynnewood, OK refinery due to high feedstock costs as oil refiners compete for other types of oil to take advantage of California’s credit programs and also help the environment. As the chart below shows, soybean oil prices have tripled in the past year as the race to make more renewables has refiners competing with food producers as the truly alternative feedstock sources like waste oils are depleted.
Marathon reported an operating profit for the first time since the pandemic hit. A few notes from their Q2 earnings release are included below.
Insult to injury: For those in the US struggling to maintain adequate supplies of jet fuel, the EIA this morning reminds you that inventories of Jet are above average across the country as refiners have rapidly ramped up production in recent months. It’s no surprise that refiners will gladly return Jet output after being forced to shift to other distillates last year when Jet demand collapses, as aviation fuels don’t create a RIN obligation, and save those producers somewhere around $.20/gallon as result. The shortage of drivers to get fuel from terminal storage to the end user tankage continues to be the bottleneck in the supply chain however, with more airports forced to ration their supplies as a result.
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Energy Markets Rally Again Thursday After A Choppy Wednesday Session
Energy markets are trying to rally again Thursday after a choppy Wednesday session. RBOB gasoline futures are leading the push higher, on pace for a 3rd consecutive day of gains after finding a temporary floor Tuesday and have added 12 cents from those lows.
Equity markets are pointing sharply lower after a weak Q1 GDP estimate which seems to have contributed to a pullback in product prices over the past few minutes, but don’t be surprised if the “bad news is good news” low interest rate junkies start jumping in later on.
The DOE’s weekly report showed sluggish demand for gasoline and diesel, but inventory levels in most markets continue to follow their typical seasonal trends. Refinery runs held fairly steady last week with crude inputs down slightly but total gross throughputs up slightly as most facilities are now back online from a busy spring maintenance season and geared up for peak demand this summer.
Propane and propylene exports spiked to a record high north of 2.3 million barrels/day last week, which demonstrates both the US’s growing influence on global product markets, and the steady shift towards “other” products besides traditional gasoline and diesel in the level of importance for refiners.
The EIA acknowledged this morning that its weak diesel consumption estimates reflected the switch to Renewable Diesel on the West Coast, although they did not provide any timeline for when that data will be included in the weekly survey. The agency acknowledged that more than 4% of the total US consumption is now a combination of RD and Biodiesel, and that number is expected to continue to grow this year. This morning’s note also suggested that weak manufacturing activity was to blame for the sluggish diesel demand across the US, while other reports suggest the freight recession continued through Q1 of this year, which is also contributing to the big shift from tight diesel markets to oversupplied in several regions.
Valero kicked off the Q1 earnings releases for refiners with solid net income of $1.2 billion that’s a far cry from the spectacular earnings north of $3 billion in the first quarter of 2023. The refining sector made $1.7 billion, down from $4.1 billion last year. That is a pattern that should be expected from other refiners as well as the industry returns to a more normal market after 2 unbelievable years. You wouldn’t guess it by looking at stock prices for refiners though, as they continue to trade near record highs despite the more modest earnings.
Another pattern we’re likely to see continue with other refiners is that Renewable earnings were down, despite a big increase in production as lower subsidies like RINs and LCFS credit values sting producers that rely on those to compete with traditional products. Valero’s SAF conversion project at its Diamond Green joint venture is progressing ahead of schedule and will give the company optionality to flip between RD and SAF depending on how the economics of those two products shakes out this year. Valero also shows part of why refiners continue to disappear in California, with operating expenses for its West Coast segment nearly 2X that of the other regions it operates in.
Week 16 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Energy Markets Trading Quietly In The Red As Ethanol Prices Rally To Five-Month High
Energy markets are trading quietly in the red to start Wednesday’s session after a healthy bounce Tuesday afternoon suggested the Israel-Iran-linked liquidation had finally run its course.
There are reports of more Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets overnight, but the sources are sketchy so far, and the market doesn’t seem to be reacting as if this is legitimate news.
Ethanol prices have rallied to a 5-month high this week as corn and other grain prices have rallied after the latest crop progress update highlighted risks to farmers this year, lower grain export expectations from Ukraine, and the approval of E15 blends this summer despite the fact it pollutes more. The rally in grain and renewables prices has also helped RIN values find a bid after it looked like they were about to test their 4-year lows last week.
The API reported small changes in refined product inventories last week, with gasoline stocks down about 600,000, while distillates were up 724,000. Crude oil inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels according to the industry-group estimates. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Total reported another upset at its Port Arthur refinery that’s been a frequent flier on the TCEQ alerts since the January deep freeze knocked it offline and damaged multiple operating units. This latest upset seems minor as the un-named unit impacted was returned to normal operations in under an hour. Gulf Coast basis markets have shrugged off most reports of refinery upsets this year as the region remains well supplied, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any impact from this news.
California conversely reacted in a big way to reports of an upset at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery outside of LA, with CARBOB basis values jumping by more than a dime. Energy News Today continued to show its value by reporting the upset before the flaring notice was even reported to area regulators, proving once again it’s ahead of the curve on refinery-related events. Another industry news outlet meanwhile struggled just to remember where the country’s largest diesel seller is located.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk