Most Petroleum Contracts Are Seeing Modest Selling For A 2nd Straight Session As October Trading Winds Down
Most petroleum contracts are seeing modest selling for a 2nd straight session as October trading winds down, with the latest round of COVID lockdowns in China getting much of the credit for the pullback in prices in an otherwise very strong month of oil and refined product prices.
On October 4th we wrote that “IF diesel prices are able to break through that resistance [200 day MA] there’s an argument to be made that a “W” pattern is forming on the charts that could end up meaning prices rally back to $4.50 this winter.” Of course, we were completely wrong in that claim as prompt values surged to a high of $4.68 on Friday, without even waiting for winter to start.
It’s the last day of October, aka expiration day for the November RBOB and ULSD contracts, which can often bring big price swings and bad jokes about spooky markets on Halloween. Calendar spreads remain incredibly strong with ULSD set to see a 90 cent decline when futures roll to December and RBOB will see a 40 cent drop from the roll tomorrow. Those price drops won’t translate to the cash markets, most of which have already begun trading off of December and seeing large basis swings to adjust to the wild moves in spreads. The silver lining is that only the NYH spot market is still trading at a premium to November futures, with most other spot markets $1 or more cheaper than prompt values in New York, so most of the country isn’t feeling the pain of this latest price spike.
Once bitten, twice shy: Money managers were bailing out of ULSD contracts last week, reducing long contracts by 10% and adding new shorts, despite that surge in prices, perhaps remembering the huge price drops that followed similar surges last spring. In fact, there have been 5 different $1/gallon or more drops in diesel prices since March, which makes it easier to understand why large speculators are renting the diesel contract rather than owning it. Money managers did make healthy increases to net length (bets on higher prices) in Brent, RBOB and WTI contracts last week, but open interest remains low as extreme volatility appears to be keeping many traders on the sidelines.
There’s about to be a hurricane in the Caribbean, but models keep that storm pointed towards Central America and far from being a threat to the US Gulf Coast refining center.
Baker Hughes reported a drop of 2 oil rigs and 1 natural gas rig actively drilling in the US last week. The Permian basin, which makes up the majority of the US rig count, did see 2 more rigs added, but reaching pre-pandemic levels before year-end looks like a long shot as the rate of growth has stalled for a few months.
Something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks: If Russia backs out of the Black Sea grain Initiative, grain and oilseed markets may be thrown into chaos once again, which in turn may up the stakes in the feedstock wars between producers of Renewable diesel, Biodiesel, SAF, and those just trying to feed their families.
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Energy Futures Are Caught Up In Headline Tug-O-War This Morning
Energy futures are caught up in headline tug-o-war this morning with Canadian oil production concerns and a positive US GDP report trying to push prices higher while sinking Chinese demand worries and Gaza ceasefire hopes are applying downward pressure. The latter two seem to be favored more so far this morning with WTI and Brent crude oil futures down ~45 cents per barrel, while gasoline and diesel prices are down about half a cent and two cents, respectively.
No news is good news? Chicago gasoline prices dropped nearly 30 cents yesterday, despite there not being any update on Exxon’s Joliet refinery after further damage was discovered Wednesday. Its tough to say if traders have realized the supply situation isn’t as bad as originally thought or if this historically volatile market is just being itself (aka ‘Chicago being Chicago’).
The rain isn’t letting up along the Texas Gulf Coast today and is forecasted to carry on through the weekend. While much of the greater Houston area is under flood watch, only two refineries are within the (more serious) flood warning area: Marathon’s Galveston Bay and Valero’s Texas City refineries. However, notification that more work is needed at Phillip’s 66 Borger refinery (up in the panhandle) is the only filing we’ve seen come through the TECQ, so far.
Premiums over the tariff on Colonial’s Line 1 (aka linespace value) returned to zero yesterday, and actually traded in the negatives, after its extended run of positive values atypical of this time of year. Line 1’s counterpart, Line 2, which carries distillates from Houston to Greensboro NC, has traded at a discount so far this year, due to the healthy, if not over-, supply of diesel along the eastern seaboard.
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WTI And Brent Crude Oil Futures Are Trading ~$1.50 Per Barrel Lower In Pre-Market Trading
The across-the-board drawdown in national energy stockpiles, as reported by the Department of Energy yesterday, stoked bullish sentiment Wednesday and prompt month gasoline, diesel, and crude oil futures published gains on the day. Those gains are being given back this morning.
The surprise rate cut by the People’s Bank of China is being blamed for the selling we are seeing in energy markets this morning. While the interest rate drop in both short- and medium-term loans won’t likely affect energy prices outright, the concern lies in the overall economic health of the world’s second largest economy and crude oil consumer. Prompt month WTI and Brent crude oil futures are trading ~$1.50 per barrel lower in pre-market trading, gasoline and diesel are following suit, shaving off .0400-.0450 per gallon.
Chicagoland RBOB has maintained its 60-cent premium over New York prices through this morning and shows no sign of coming down any time soon. Quite the opposite in fact: the storm damage, which knocked Exxon Mobil’s Joliet refinery offline on 7/15, seems to be more extensive than initially thought, potentially extending the repair time and pushing back the expected return date.
There are three main refineries that feed the Chicago market, the impact from one of them shutting down abruptly can be seen in the charts derived from aforementioned data published by the DOE. Refinery throughput in PADD 2 dropped 183,000 barrels per day, driving gasoline stockpiles in the area down to a new 5-year seasonal low.
While it seems all is quiet on the Atlantic front (for now), America’s Refineryland is forecasted to receive non-stop rain and thunderstorms for the next four days. While it may not be as dramatic as a hurricane, flooding and power outages can shut down refineries, and cities for that matter, all the same, as we learned from Beryl.