The Daily Price Tug-Of-War

The yo-yo action continues as energy futures are bouncing Tuesday, after another round of heavy selling on Monday. Part of the daily price tug of war seems to be driven by COVID divergence with the U.S. opening up for business just as Europe is shutting down. Depending on which side of the pond you’re on, that gives a very different outlook for fuel demand. 

From a technical perspective, petroleum contracts have been stuck in a sideways trading range ever since the bull market trend broke mid-March and this type of back and forth action should be expected until a breakout occurs. That sideways pattern is fairly well defined for WTI and ULSD ($57-$62 and $1.73-$1.84 respectively) but RBOB is more broad between $1.86 and $2.04 setting the boundaries we’ll need to see broken down before the next trend can begin.

U.S. stocks are not as conflicted as energy markets, reaching new records this week. The rapid recovery in the U.S. will not come without pain however, as supply networks face challenges keeping up with the rapid change in demand, just as we’re seeing with the growing backlog of ships at major U.S. ports. 

While fuel supplies are getting back to more normal levels across the south, there are still a few refineries struggling to return units to service six weeks after the Polar Plunge.

Today’s interesting read: Why tax incentives won’t help the real problem expanding the electric grid. No one wants giant transmission lines in their backyard.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.