Many In The Market Caught Off-Guard
Oil prices have spiked $5 a barrel, and refined products are up 12 cents/gallon since early Thursday morning after OPEC & friends announced they would not change their output cut agreement, which caught many in the market off-guard. The rally has propelled each of the big 4 petroleum futures contracts to their highest levels in more than a year, just a couple of days after it looked like the four month old trend might be breaking down.
The big rally in energy contracts comes in spite of a large selloff taking place in equity markets, which continue to act spooked by interest rates higher than 1%. You can make a strong argument that the two agencies most capable of moving energy prices with their policy are OPEC and the U.S. Federal reserve. Yesterday, we saw both in action with OPEC surprising the market to the upside, while the FED Chair apparently didn’t do enough to calm the stock markets. Given the two asset classes have had a strong positive correlation for most of the past year, this recent divergence could end up creating more volatility for energy contracts in the weeks to come, while a strong rally in the U.S. Dollar could finally pop the energy balloon.
Looking past the headlines of the OPEC announcement, there is some reason to pause given that the Saudi’s are still not convinced demand globally is capable of handling normal production levels. Then again, there is certainly a political angle to everything the cartel does, and it’s also possible that the U.S. reaction (or what critics call a lack of reaction) to the Saudi leadership’s role in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi could have played into this decision as well. A Bloomberg note this morning suggests that the move by the Saudi’s is a bet that U.S. oil producers will behave differently this time, even though they’ve behaved the same way for the past 150 years which has helped create the epic boom and bust cycles this market is famous for.
The refinery recovery efforts continue to progress with additional units coming online daily, but hiccups are common, and re-supply is not coming fast enough for those still scrambling to find allocation across Texas and neighboring states. The impacts on rack prices are spread much further however with markets from Arizona to Virginia all feeling the trickle down impacts of the heart of refining country shutting down for two weeks. Group 3 diesel differentials continue to stand out, spiking to premiums north of 30 cents Thursday morning before trading lower to end the day. That market has 20 cents of backwardation between now and the end of March, as traders bet that resupply should largely be complete by April, even though supplies continue to tick lower in the region this week.
Chicken or the egg: RIN values continue to set new multi-year highs this week, which is either helping drive the rally in refined products, or being driven by that rally depending on who you ask. There’s little news over the RFS program or the various legal challenges to it, and grain prices have been fairly flat, so it seems this rally could simply be the market betting that this new administration is unlikely to do anything that would help lower this de-facto tax on refiners.
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Energy Markets Rally Again Thursday After A Choppy Wednesday Session
Energy markets are trying to rally again Thursday after a choppy Wednesday session. RBOB gasoline futures are leading the push higher, on pace for a 3rd consecutive day of gains after finding a temporary floor Tuesday and have added 12 cents from those lows.
Equity markets are pointing sharply lower after a weak Q1 GDP estimate which seems to have contributed to a pullback in product prices over the past few minutes, but don’t be surprised if the “bad news is good news” low interest rate junkies start jumping in later on.
The DOE’s weekly report showed sluggish demand for gasoline and diesel, but inventory levels in most markets continue to follow their typical seasonal trends. Refinery runs held fairly steady last week with crude inputs down slightly but total gross throughputs up slightly as most facilities are now back online from a busy spring maintenance season and geared up for peak demand this summer.
Propane and propylene exports spiked to a record high north of 2.3 million barrels/day last week, which demonstrates both the US’s growing influence on global product markets, and the steady shift towards “other” products besides traditional gasoline and diesel in the level of importance for refiners.
The EIA acknowledged this morning that its weak diesel consumption estimates reflected the switch to Renewable Diesel on the West Coast, although they did not provide any timeline for when that data will be included in the weekly survey. The agency acknowledged that more than 4% of the total US consumption is now a combination of RD and Biodiesel, and that number is expected to continue to grow this year. This morning’s note also suggested that weak manufacturing activity was to blame for the sluggish diesel demand across the US, while other reports suggest the freight recession continued through Q1 of this year, which is also contributing to the big shift from tight diesel markets to oversupplied in several regions.
Valero kicked off the Q1 earnings releases for refiners with solid net income of $1.2 billion that’s a far cry from the spectacular earnings north of $3 billion in the first quarter of 2023. The refining sector made $1.7 billion, down from $4.1 billion last year. That is a pattern that should be expected from other refiners as well as the industry returns to a more normal market after 2 unbelievable years. You wouldn’t guess it by looking at stock prices for refiners though, as they continue to trade near record highs despite the more modest earnings.
Another pattern we’re likely to see continue with other refiners is that Renewable earnings were down, despite a big increase in production as lower subsidies like RINs and LCFS credit values sting producers that rely on those to compete with traditional products. Valero’s SAF conversion project at its Diamond Green joint venture is progressing ahead of schedule and will give the company optionality to flip between RD and SAF depending on how the economics of those two products shakes out this year. Valero also shows part of why refiners continue to disappear in California, with operating expenses for its West Coast segment nearly 2X that of the other regions it operates in.
Week 16 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Energy Markets Trading Quietly In The Red As Ethanol Prices Rally To Five-Month High
Energy markets are trading quietly in the red to start Wednesday’s session after a healthy bounce Tuesday afternoon suggested the Israel-Iran-linked liquidation had finally run its course.
There are reports of more Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets overnight, but the sources are sketchy so far, and the market doesn’t seem to be reacting as if this is legitimate news.
Ethanol prices have rallied to a 5-month high this week as corn and other grain prices have rallied after the latest crop progress update highlighted risks to farmers this year, lower grain export expectations from Ukraine, and the approval of E15 blends this summer despite the fact it pollutes more. The rally in grain and renewables prices has also helped RIN values find a bid after it looked like they were about to test their 4-year lows last week.
The API reported small changes in refined product inventories last week, with gasoline stocks down about 600,000, while distillates were up 724,000. Crude oil inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels according to the industry-group estimates. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Total reported another upset at its Port Arthur refinery that’s been a frequent flier on the TCEQ alerts since the January deep freeze knocked it offline and damaged multiple operating units. This latest upset seems minor as the un-named unit impacted was returned to normal operations in under an hour. Gulf Coast basis markets have shrugged off most reports of refinery upsets this year as the region remains well supplied, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any impact from this news.
California conversely reacted in a big way to reports of an upset at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery outside of LA, with CARBOB basis values jumping by more than a dime. Energy News Today continued to show its value by reporting the upset before the flaring notice was even reported to area regulators, proving once again it’s ahead of the curve on refinery-related events. Another industry news outlet meanwhile struggled just to remember where the country’s largest diesel seller is located.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk