Energy Prices Rally After Reported Deal
Reports that Russia and Saudi Arabia reached a deal on more oil production cuts helped energy prices rally to multi-month highs overnight, most notably Brent crude was trading north of the $40 mark. Pesky details that the deal was contingent upon other OPEC members actually complying with the current agreement seemed to throw cold water on that rally and prices started heading lower around 5 a.m. Despite the pullback, charts continue to point higher so as long as the week’s lows aren’t taken out by this round of selling.
The API reported a small draw in U.S. crude oil inventories last week that seemed to help with the early overnight rally. Refined product inventories continued to build however, with gasoline stocks up 1.7 million barrels and distillates up more than 5.9 million. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time today. Unaccounted for crude oil remains a huge number to watch, as are crude oil imports while the armada of Saudi oil tankers has been offloading, which has helped push total U.S. inventories higher even as Cushing stocks have seen a dramatic draw-down. The growing glut of distillates continues to be a major red flag challenging the premise of the recovery rally for both energy and equity markets.
Tropical Storm Cristobal formed Tuesday, and is currently forecast to hit Louisiana by Monday at Tropical Storm strength. There’s a lot that can happen between now and then, and although this is normally too early in the year for major hurricane development, the Gulf of Mexico waters are already warmer than normal, which could help this storm grow. The current path would avoid a direct hit on any of the refinery clusters along the USGC, but essentially all of the coastal refineries are in the cone of uncertainty so it’s too soon to write if off completely. The path will also take the storm through the heart of US offshore oil production, but with those operations already cut back due to the price collapse, this may have less impact on oil prices than it would in a normal year.
Another unintended consequence of the COVID-19 fallout: If there are any supply disruptions during hurricane season, the impacts may be less noticeable as the extra supply of oil and refined products will act as a buffer to the system. In fact, with Gulf Coast refiners reliant on exports to balance the supply/demand equation, if production stays online but ship traffic is delayed, we could see downward pressure on prices.
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Week 17 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The Energy Complex Is Trading Modestly Lower So Far This Morning With WTI Crude Oil Futures Leading The Way
Energy Futures Are Drifting Quietly Higher This Morning
Refined Products Holding Close To Break Even While Oil Prices Are Losing Just Under 1%
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Week 17 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The Energy Complex Is Trading Modestly Lower So Far This Morning With WTI Crude Oil Futures Leading The Way
The energy complex is trading modestly lower so far this morning with WTI crude oil futures leading the way, exchanging hands $1.50 per barrel lower (-1.9%) than Tuesday’s settlement price. Gasoline and diesel futures are following suit, dropping .0390 and .0280 per gallon, respectively.
A surprise crude oil build (one that doesn’t include any changes to the SPR) as reported by the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday is taking credit for the bearish trading seen this morning. The Institute estimated an increase in crude inventories of ~5 million barrels and drop in both refined product stocks of 1.5-2.2 million barrels for the week ending April 26. The Department of Energy’s official report is due out at it’s regular time (9:30 CDT) this morning.
The Senate Budget Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing at 9:00 AM EST this morning regarding a years-long probe into climate change messaging from big oil companies. Following a 3-year investigation, Senate and House Democrats released their final report yesterday alleging major oil companies have internally recognized the impacts of fossil fuels on the climate since as far back as the 1960s, while privately lobbying against climate legislation and publicly presenting a narrative that undermines a connection between the two. Whether this will have a tangible effect on policy or is just the latest announcement in an election-yeardeluge is yet to be seen.
Speaking of deluge, another drone attack was launched against Russian infrastructure earlier this morning, causing an explosion and subsequent fire at Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery. While likely a response to the five killed from Russian missile strikes in Odesa and Kharkiv, Kyiv has yet to officially claim responsibility for the attack that successfully struck state infrastructure just 130 miles from Moscow.
The crude oil bears are on a tear this past week, blowing past WTI’s 5 and 10 day moving averages on Monday and opening below it’s 50-day MA this morning. The $80 level is likely a key resistance level, below which the path is open for the American oil benchmark to drop to the $75 level in short order.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Energy Futures Are Drifting Quietly Higher This Morning
Energy futures are drifting quietly higher this morning as a new round of hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas seem to show relative promise. It seems the market is focusing on the prospect of cooler heads prevailing, rather than the pervasive rocket/drone exchanges, the latest of which took place over Israel’s northern border.
A warmer-than-expected winter depressed diesel demand and, likewise, distillate refinery margins, which has dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of 2022. The ULSD forward curve has shifted into contango (carry) over the past month as traders seek to store their diesel inventories and hope for a pickup in demand, domestic or otherwise.
The DOE announced it had continued rebuilding it’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve this month, noting the addition of 2.3 million barrels of crude so far in April. Depending on what the private sector reported for last week, Wednesday’s DOE report may put current national crude oil inventories (include those of the SPR) above the year’s previous levels, something we haven’t seen since April of 2022, two months after Ukraine war began.
The latest in the Dangote Refinery Saga: Credit stall-out, rising oil prices, and currency exchange.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.