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The Winter Rally In Energy Prices May Have Ended This Week With Most Petroleum Contracts Down 7%

Friday, Feb 18 2022
Market Talk

The winter rally in energy prices may have ended this week, with most petroleum contracts down 7% or more from Monday’s highs. March diesel futures are leading the move lower dropping 25 cents after coming just a few cents from hitting the $3 mark earlier in the week. 

Trading headlines this week have followed a simple pattern, if prices rally, blame Russia and if they fall, credit Iran. So today the market is lower and we’ll credit negotiators seeking to salvage a nuclear agreement with Iran, even though reports suggest that even IF a deal is made, it will still be months until more oil comes to the market. Meanwhile, a broken ceasefire in eastern Ukraine that some fear is the precursor to an invasion, hasn’t been enough to stop the selling this morning, but will make a good excuse if prices bounce this afternoon.

Now that the bullish weekly trend lines have broken, there’s a good chance we’ll see even more selling for technical reasons, even though fundamentally there’s still plenty of reason for buyers to step in. Peg the February lows around $2.66 for ULSD and $2.51 for RBOB as the next pivot points to see if the bulls are ready to step back in.

While petroleum products have been selling off this week, renewable oil feedstocks have strengthened, which has helped push RIN prices higher. D4 biodiesel RINs in particular have seen strength alongside soybean oil prices, and are trading at their highest levels of the new year. 

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