November ULSD Has Taken Back Its Place As The Leader Of The Energy Rally

Market TalkThursday, Oct 27 2022
Pivotal Week For Price Action

Someone continues to think it’s a good idea to try and sell refined products in the overnight sessions, even though we’ve seen strong rallies wipe out those losses every day this week.  November ULSD has taken back its place as the leader of the energy rally, setting a new 4 month high for futures, and pushing the spread vs the December contract north of 50 cents/gallon this morning. RBOB is seeing a similar push higher, threatening to break the $3 mark and pushing it’s prompt/2nd month spread north of 33 cents/gallon this morning.   Those big moves in time spreads continue to wreak havoc on basis markets across the country as cash market traders deal with huge basis swings that are often doing nothing more than sliding down the steep backwardation curve.  

Two examples of this phenomenon from Wednesday: Group 3 ULSD dropped sharply and traded 40 cents below November ULSD, but still commanded a premium to the rallying USGC contract that’s trading at a 5 cent premium to December.  In LA we saw CARBOB basis values climb more than 40 cents on the day, but cash values still declined by a nickel for the day as that market rolled to a December reference month.

The best cure for high prices is high prices: Note the spike in West Coast (PADD 5) imports in the charts below from the DOE’s weekly report. That shows how the cargo market reacted to the big price premiums we saw in late September, and those barrels hitting the market then contributed to those prices crashing. Now that we’re seeing NY Harbor prices commanding the huge premiums in October, we should see imports into PADD 1 increase in the next few weeks although the Atlantic basin doesn’t seem to have the spare fuel the Pacific does owing to the chaos in Europe and refinery closures after a decade of Europe and the US East Coast having too much refining capacity.

PADD 1 refinery runs have ticked up to the 2nd highest weekly level since the PES refinery exploded and closed in 2019 as plants return from their fall maintenance and the facilities that had been limping along just trying to survive for the past few years are now finding themselves in the right place at the right time. Right on cue, PBF’s Q3 earnings showed the company made more than $1 billion during the quarter, nearly 18 times more than they made this time a year ago.  

On the other hand, not everything is rosy in refinery land as the largest remaining PADD 1 refiner has reportedly gone through a restructuring and laid off numerous employees across the country. We just witnessed strikes at refineries in France that shut down 4 facilities and contributed to the tight supplies in the US East Coast this month, as workers protested the companies making record earnings while the employees weren’t sharing in that success, and it wouldn’t be surprising if we saw similar reactions at some US facilities following this type of action.

Speaking of Atlantic basin refinery capacity, one detail of the upcoming European sanctions on Russian energy exports is an Italian refinery that could be forced to close due to its links to Russian-owned Lukoil, which would cut the country’s production capacity by 20%.  Germany recently took control of 3 refineries to avoid a similar problem, although it’s still unclear how those facilities will be supplied once the bans start in December.

That uncertainty of oil supply, along with the ongoing release of 1 million barrels/day from the SPR helped push US crude oil exports reached an all-time high last week with more than 5.1 million barrels (214 million gallons) of crude being sent abroad every day.  If that statement makes you want to jump on the export ban bandwagon, take a look at the chart of exports over the past 15 years, and compare oil prices today to the 2008–2013-time frame when crude oil exports were mostly illegal, and prices were still regularly north of $100/barrel. 

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

Market Talk Update 10.27.2022

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Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkThursday, Mar 28 2024

Energy Markets Are Ticking Modestly Higher Heading Into The Easter Weekend With Crude Oil Prices Leading The Way Up About $1.25/Barrel Early Thursday Morning

Energy markets are ticking modestly higher heading into the Easter Weekend with crude oil prices leading the way up about $1.25/barrel early Thursday morning, while gasoline prices are up around 2.5 cents and ULSD futures are about a penny.

Today is the last trading day for April HO and RBOB futures, an unusually early expiration due to the month ending on a holiday weekend. None of the pricing agencies will be active tomorrow since the NYMEX and ICE contracts are completely shut, so most rack prices published tonight will carry through Monday.

Gasoline inventories broke from tradition and snapped a 7 week decline as Gulf Coast supplies increased, more than offsetting the declines in PADDs 1, 2 and 5. With gulf coast refiners returning from maintenance and cranking out summer grade gasoline, the race is now officially on to move their excess through the rest of the country before the terminal and retail deadlines in the next two months. While PADD 3 run rates recover, PADD 2 is expected to see rates decline in the coming weeks with 2 Chicago-area refineries scheduled for planned maintenance, just a couple of weeks after BP returned from 7 weeks of unplanned repairs.

Although terminal supplies appear to be ample around the Baltimore area, we have seen linespace values for shipping gasoline on Colonial tick higher in the wake of the tragic bridge collapse as some traders seem to be making a small bet that the lack of supplemental barge resupply may keep inventories tight until the barge traffic can move once again. The only notable threat to refined product supplies is from ethanol barge traffic which will need to be replaced by truck and rail options, but so far that doesn’t seem to be impacting availability at the rack. Colonial did announce that they would delay the closure of its underutilized Baltimore north line segment that was scheduled for April 1 to May 1 out of an “abundance of caution”.

Ethanol inventories reached a 1-year high last week as output continues to hold above the seasonal range as ethanol distillers seem to be betting that expanded use of E15 blends will be enough to offset sluggish gasoline demand. A Bloomberg article this morning also highlights why soybeans are beginning to displace corn in the subsidized food to fuel race.

Flint Hills reported a Tuesday fire at its Corpus Christi West facility Wednesday, although it’s unclear if that event will have a material impact on output after an FCC unit was “stabilized” during the fire. While that facility isn’t connected to Colonial, and thus doesn’t tend to have an impact on USGC spot pricing, it is a key supplier to the San Antonio, Austin and DFW markets, so any downtime may be felt at those racks.

Meanwhile, P66 reported ongoing flaring at its Borger TX refinery due to an unknown cause. That facility narrowly avoided the worst wildfires in state history a few weeks ago but is one of the frequent fliers on the TCEQ program with upsets fairly common in recent years.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

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Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkWednesday, Mar 27 2024

Most Energy Contracts Are Ticking Lower For A 2nd Day After A Trickle Of Selling Picked Up Steam Tuesday

Most energy contracts are ticking lower for a 2nd day after a trickle of selling picked up steam Tuesday. ULSD futures are down a dime from Monday’s highs and RBOB futures are down 7 cents.

Diesel prices continue to look like the weak link in the energy chain, with futures coming within 1 point of their March lows overnight, setting up a test of the December lows around $2.48 if that resistance breaks down. Despite yesterday’s slide, RBOB futures still look bullish on the weekly charts, with a run towards the $3 mark still looking like a strong possibility in the next month or so.

The API reported crude stocks increased by more than 9 million barrels last week, while distillates were up 531,000 and gasoline stocks continued their seasonal decline falling by 4.4 million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.

RIN values have recovered to their highest levels in 2 months around $.59/RIN for D4 and D6 RINs, even though the recovery rally in corn and soybean prices that had helped lift prices off of the 4 year lows set in February has stalled out. Expectations for more biofuel production to be shut in due to weak economics with lower subsidy values seems to be encouraging the tick higher in recent weeks, although prices are still about $1/RIN lower than this time last year.

Reminder that Friday is one of only 3 annual holidays in which the Nymex is completely shut, so no prices will be published, but it’s not a federal holiday in the US so banks will be open.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.