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More Wild Action In Energy And Equity Markets This Week

Friday, May 6 2022
Market Talk

More wild action in energy and equity markets this week with price swings and spreads that continue to confound

Yesterday saw June ULSD futures (that have a delivery point in NY Harbor) drop 15 cents/gallon, and yet cash prices for ULSD in the New York harbor actually went up on the day as physical shortages continues to cause supply runouts and tight allocation all across the region.  

Prompt values for diesel in the NY Harbor region are once again trading near a $1/gallon premium to June HO futures and to some neighboring markets. While Europe’s shortage  of diesel is earning well-deserved credit for some of that phenomenon, the premium for NYH barrels vs European grades is now reaching the point where we may see some of those barrels that were destined for exports end up staying in the US. Which may help explain why the forward curve for futures has been coming back to reality this week. See Charts below. 

US equity markets saw their biggest daily selloff in two years Thursday, just a day after some saw their biggest gains in two years as the FOMC’s plans to rein in inflation continue to create large amounts of turbulence for markets that got used to the idea of free money.

The April payrolls report estimated 428,000 jobs were added in the US during the month, while the February and March estimates were both revised lower. The official (U-3) unemployment rate held steady at 3.6% while the real unemployment rate (U-6) ticked up to 7%. The market reaction was fairly muted to this report as it seems in line with many expectations, and not a dramatic figure that might make the FED reconsider their plans.

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