Hope Has Never Been Higher In The History Of The RBOB Market
A year ago today gasoline prices dropped from $1.10/gallon to $.85, as traders awoke to the reality that the country was about to be placed on lockdown. What a year it’s been.
If you only watched futures prices, you’d think the country was facing a severe gasoline shortage now as RBOB prices have spiked to a 2 year high this week, even though in reality it’s diesel supply that’s facing shortages across large parts of the US. We are in the window of the typical spring gasoline rally however, and it’s safe to say hope has never been higher in the history of the RBOB market as the vaccines are finally shining a light at the end of the COVID tunnel.
On top of the seasonal and emotional influences, RIN markets seem to be having a noticeable influence on pricing, as product prices need to move higher just to offset the increased cost of compliance with the RFS for refiners. RIN values are approaching their all-time highs this week with trades just a few cents away from the record spike we saw in 2013. As the chart below shows, not long after trading near the $1.50 mark in 2013, prices plummeted by more than $1.20 per RIN as the EPA finally acknowledged the blend wall that made the RFS mandates physically impossible to reach. Will it be different this time around? That will likely depend on how the supreme court rules this summer on refinery & environmental waiver requests.
Double Top? As of this writing, the high trade for RBOB is $2.1559, which matches the high trade from April of 2019 to the point, and could create a nice symmetric stopping point for the 4.5 month old rally that’s added nearly $1.20 to gasoline prices. If that plays out, we should see gasoline prices drop 30 cents or more, for no other reason than that’s what they normally do each year whenever the spring rally finally stalls out. That said, there’s a good chance based on the upward momentum that we see prices move through that resistance, which would open the door for a run at the 2018 highs in the $2.28 range.
The refinery recovery continues with improvements coming daily, but still more outages expected over the next week as the system refills. Basis values and rack spreads are returning to more normal levels as the consensus from physical traders is that the worst of the disruption is behind us and it’s just a matter of time until things settle down. Colonial pipeline is reportedly still slowing its line 2 due to limited diesel supplies, and maintenance activities, which will keep terminals all along the SE tight for at least another week.
Drama in index land? Planned changes to add WTI pricing to the Brent oil index have been delayed after the industry rejected the plan. Given the long history of the parent company’s ability to make huge sums of money for index subscriptions, whether or not they’re grounded in reality, there’s little doubt that a new plan will be launched soon.
Click here to download a PDF of today’s TACenergy Market Talk.
Latest Posts
Energy Prices Up Over 2% Across The Board This Morning
Prices Are Mixed This Morning As The Potential Halt In U.S. Interest Rate Hikes
Week 22 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The Slide Continues This Morning With Fuel Futures Down Another 2% And Oil Down 3%
Social Media
News & Views
View All
Energy Prices Up Over 2% Across The Board This Morning
Refined product futures traded in an 8-10 cent range yesterday with prompt heating oil settling up ~6 cents and RBOB ending up about flat. Oil prices clawed back some of the losses taken in the first two full trading days of the week, putting the price per barrel for US crude back over the $70 mark. Prices are up just over 2% across the board this morning, signifying confidence after the Senate passed the bipartisan debt ceiling bill last night.
The EIA reported crude oil inventories up 4.5 million barrels last week, aided by above-average imports, weakened demand, and a sizeable increase to their adjustment factor. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to release weekly through June and the 355 million barrels remaining in the SPR is now at a low not seen since September 1983. Exports increased again on the week and continue to run well above last year’s record-setting levels through the front half of the year. Refinery runs and utilization rates have increased to their highest points this year, both sitting just above year-ago rates.
Diesel stocks continue to hover around the low end of the 5-year range set in 2022, reporting a build of about half of what yesterday’s API data showed. Most PADDs saw modest increases last week but all are sitting far below average levels. Distillate imports show 3 weeks of growth trending along the seasonal average line, while 3.7 million barrels leaving the US last week made it the largest increase in exports for the year. Gasoline inventories reported a small decline on the week, also being affected by the largest jump in exports this year, leaving it under the 5-year range for the 11th consecutive week. Demand for both products dwindled last week; however, gas is still comfortably above average despite the drop.
The sentiment surrounding OPEC+’s upcoming meeting is they’re not likely to extend oil supply cuts, despite prices falling early in the week. OPEC+ is responsible for a significant portion of global crude oil production and its policy decisions can have a major impact on prices. Some members of OPEC+ have voluntarily cut production since April due to a waning economic outlook, but the group is not expected to take further action next week.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk
Prices Are Mixed This Morning As The Potential Halt In U.S. Interest Rate Hikes
Bearish headlines pushed refined products and crude futures down again yesterday. Prompt RBOB closed the month at $2.5599 and HO at $2.2596 with WTI dropping another $1.37 to $68.09 and Brent losing 88 cents. Prices are mixed this morning as the potential halt in U.S. interest rate hikes and the House passing of the US debt ceiling bill balanced the impact of rising inventories and mixed demand signals from China.
The American Petroleum Institute reported crude builds of 5.2 million barrels countering expectations of a draw. Likewise, refined product inventories missed expectations and were also reported to be up last week with gasoline adding 1.891 million barrels and diesel stocks rising 1.849 million barrels. The market briefly attempted a push higher but ultimately settled with losses following the reported supply increases implying weaker than anticipated demand. The EIA will publish its report at 10am this morning.
LyondellBasell announced plans yesterday to delay closing of their Houston refinery, originally scheduled to shut operations by the end of this year, through Q1 2025. The company “remains committed to ceasing operation of its oil refining business” but the 289,000 b/d facility remaining online longer than expected will likely have market watchers adjusting this capacity back into their balance estimates.
Side note: there is still an ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Two oil refineries located east of Russia's major oil export terminals were targeted by drone attacks. The Afipsky refinery’s 37,000 b/d crude distillation unit was struck yesterday, igniting a massive fire that was later extinguished while the other facility avoided any damage. The attacks are part of a series of intensified drone strikes on Russian oil pipelines. Refineries in Russia have been frequently targeted by drones since the start of the military operation in Ukraine in February 2022.