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First Anniversary Of Colossal Selloff

Tuesday, Apr 20 2021
Market Talk

Crude oil futures are leading energy prices higher this morning, on the first anniversary of the colossal selloff that plunged the benchmark under -$40. Taking the majority of the credit this morning is Libya’s National Oil Corp. declaring force majeure on crude oil exports out of its eastern port. The state-run corporation estimates we could see 280 thousand barrels per day come off the global market. A weaker U.S. dollar and, you guessed it, COVID concerns are also in the conversation this morning as to why WTI is up 0.5%.

Predictions for an unseasonably cooler April has got money managers buying corn futures at a rate not seen since 2011, pushing prompt month futures to pre-pandemic levels. Anyone keeping an eye out for news regarding the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard would probably note this as a main reason for the furious rally in ethanol RINs, along with the establishment of an environment-friendly administration.

Milder temperatures seems to be touching several markets, even though that was likely the last thing on our minds during the cold snap a couple months ago. The Energy Information Administration published a note highlighting the expected decrease in natural gas consumption due to lower heating demand.

Energy futures pushed past last week’s highs in overnight trading and have since pulled back. If this rally can be sustained, peg $68 as the short term price target for WTI futures before running into some resistance. Likewise, RB and HO could easily add a dime in the next couple weeks before the charts would protest.

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