Energy Prices Plunged To 7 Week Lows Wednesday, Even After DOE Reported Strong Recovery
Energy prices plunged to 7 week lows Wednesday, even after the DOE reported a strong recovery in petroleum demand, putting the complex back where it started the week, on the verge of a technical breakdown that could shave another 20-30 cents/gallon off of refined products. A surge in gasoline imports may have been the biggest contributor to the pullback in prices Wednesday as it seems to have knocked the wind out of the rally in NYH spot prices, and slashed more than 1/3 of the backwardation out of that market in just a single day.
As has been the case most days ever since prices peaked a month ago, a big selloff has been met with some modest buying this morning. It looks like the $2.35 range for ULSD and $2.25 for RBOB are setting a new temporary floor, and will become the pivot point for the next several days.
Running out of ideas? As political pressure heats up over the highest inflation in 30 years, the White House seems increasingly desperate to find a solution to reduce gasoline prices. Another letter was sent to the FTC to try harder to find out who is cheating even though that produced no results the last time they tried it, more rumors of a coordinated SPR release are being floated amongst other brilliant plans like banning crude oil exports again, even though that’s more likely to raise gasoline prices by further straining the transportation network.
None of those options reflect the reality that refiners are still recovering from a near-death experience in 2020 that slashed capacity and deferred necessary repairs meaning there are no short term solutions until the plants undergoing maintenance (both planned and unplanned) can come back online, which has proved to be a big challenge in recent weeks. Even then, there’s not a short term fix to the driver shortage, which means that even when prices for diesel in Phoenix trade nearly $1/gallon above other parts of the country like they are today, long hauling fuel to help heal the supply crunch can’t happen like it would in years past.
The ethanol market remains the best indicator that this tightness is one of transportation more than supply, as $1/gallon or more of backwardation persists over the next few months, even as ethanol output in the US remains near all-time highs and inventories are holding just below their average for this time of year.
An inconvenient promise? The administration also just opened up the largest Gulf of Mexico oil lease in history, auctioning off more than 80 million acres, which of course has environmental groups fuming as it comes just a few days after pledging to aggressively reduce carbon emissions. This is the problem with a country that at least pretends to follow the rule of law, as the administration had tried to block this type of sale but was overruled in the courts, meaning this administration is now stuck granting more oil permits than its predecessor, but still seeing prices increase.
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The Sell-Off Continues In Energy Markets, RBOB Gasoline Futures Are Now Down Nearly 13 Cents In The Past Two Days
The sell-off continues in energy markets. RBOB gasoline futures are now down nearly 13 cents in the past two days, and have fallen 16 cents from a week ago, leading to questions about whether or not we’ve seen the seasonal peak in gasoline prices. ULSD futures are also coming under heavy selling pressure, dropping 15 cents so far this week and are trading at their lowest level since January 3rd.
The drop on the weekly chart certainly takes away the upside momentum for gasoline that still favored a run at the $3 mark just a few days ago, but the longer term up-trend that helped propel a 90-cent increase since mid-December is still intact as long as prices stay above the $2.60 mark for the next week. If diesel prices break below $2.50 there’s a strong possibility that we see another 30 cent price drop in the next couple of weeks.
An unwind of long positions after Iran’s attack on Israel was swatted out of the sky without further escalation (so far anyway) and reports that Russia is resuming refinery runs, both seeming to be contributing factors to the sharp pullback in prices.
Along with the uncertainty about where the next attacks may or may not occur, and if they will have any meaningful impact on supply, come no shortage of rumors about potential SPR releases or how OPEC might respond to the crisis. The only thing that’s certain at this point, is that there’s much more spare capacity for both oil production and refining now than there was 2 years ago, which seems to be helping keep a lid on prices despite so much tension.
In addition, for those that remember the chaos in oil markets 50 years ago sparked by similar events in and around Israel, read this note from the NY Times on why things are different this time around.
The DOE’s weekly status report was largely ignored in the midst of the big sell-off Wednesday, with few noteworthy items in the report.
Diesel demand did see a strong recovery from last week’s throwaway figure that proves the vulnerability of the weekly estimates, particularly the week after a holiday, but that did nothing to slow the sell-off in ULSD futures.
Perhaps the biggest next of the week was that the agency made its seasonal changes to nameplate refining capacity as facilities emerged from their spring maintenance.
PADD 2 saw an increase of 36mb/day, and PADD 3 increased by 72mb/day, both of which set new records for regional capacity. PADD 5 meanwhile continued its slow-motion decline, losing another 30mb/day of capacity as California’s war of attrition against the industry continues. It’s worth noting that given the glacial pace of EIA reporting on the topic, we’re unlikely to see the impact of Rodeo’s conversion in the official numbers until next year.
Speaking of which, if you believe the PADD 5 diesel chart below that suggests the region is running out of the fuel, when in fact there’s an excess in most local markets, you haven’t been paying attention. Gasoline inventories on the West Coast however do appear consistent with reality as less refining output and a lack of resupply options both continue to create headaches for suppliers.
Week 15 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Prices To Lease Space On Colonial’s Main Gasoline Line Continue To Rally This Week
Energy markets are sliding lower again to start Wednesday’s trading as demand concerns and weaker stock markets around the world seem to be outweighing any supply concerns for the time being.
Rumors continue to swirl about an “imminent” response by Israel to Iran’s attacks, but so far, no news seems to be taken as good news in the hopes that further escalation can be avoided, even as tensions near the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz continue to simmer.
Prices to lease space on Colonial’s main gasoline line continue to rally this week, trading north of 11 cents/gallon as Gulf Coast producers still struggle to find outlets for their production, despite a healthy export market. Gulf Coast CBOB is trading at discounts of around 34 cents to futures, while Gulf Coast RBOB is trading around a 16-cent discount, which gives shippers room to pay up for the linespace and still deliver into the East Coast markets at a profit.
Back to reality, or just the start of more volatility? California CARBOB basis values have dropped back to “only” 40 cent premiums to RBOB futures this week, as multiple flaring events at California refineries don’t appear to have impacted supply. The state has been an island for fuel supplies for many years as its boutique grades prevent imports from neighboring states, and now add the conversion of the P66 Rodeo refinery to renewable diesel production and the pending changes to try and cap refinery profits, and it’s easier to understand why these markets are increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks and price spikes on gasoline.
RIN prices continue to fall this week, touching 44 cents/RIN for D4 and D6 values Tuesday, their lowest level in 6 weeks and just about a nickel above a 4-year low. While the sharp drop in RIN and LCFS values has caused several biodiesel and Renewable Diesel producers to either shut down or limit production, the growth in RIN generation continues thanks to projects like the Rodeo refinery conversion, making the supply in RINs still outpace the demand set by the Renewable Fuel Standard by a wide margin.
The API reported draws in refined products, 2.5 million barrels for gasoline and 427,000 barrels for distillates, while crude oil stocks had an estimated build of more than 4 million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
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