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Energy Futures Punching Through Multi-Year Highs

Wednesday, Jun 23 2021
Market Talk

Energy futures are punching through to multi-year highs this morning. The big three American benchmarks are trading at levels not seen since 2018 this morning, likely propelled by the American Petroleum Institute’s report published yesterday showing over a 7 million barrel draw in crude oil inventories. The large crude draw seems to be overshadowing the smaller builds in gas and diesel stockpiles, each failing to top one million barrels for the week.

OPEC+’s July meeting seems to be demanding a sizeable portion of collective attention this morning. The cartel is anticipated to ease their supply cut at next month’s meeting, effectively capping off oil prices despite some analysts calling for $100 oil by next year. While conventional wisdom sees an increase in production as a bearish market condition, others think turning the spigot back on now is ‘too little too late’.

The projected path of the tropical disturbance in the Southwest Atlantic has shrunk considerably overnight. It’s chances of development have likewise been reduced to 10% over the next 5 days.

The recovery in ethanol and biodiesel RIN prices continue to outpace each respective underlying feedstock. The renewable credits saw a ~10% bounce yesterday while corn and soybean oil ended the day with <1% gains.

Prompt month WTI futures are trading just over a dollar per barrel below the $75 mark. A confirmation of the sizeable inventory draw estimated by the API in today’s inventory snapshot published by the DOE could be reason enough for the American benchmark to take a run at the psychologically important resistance level. As with most rallies, Brent crude has beaten WTI to the punch, trading at $75.50 per barrel this morning.

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