Energy Futures Are Moving Modestly Lower For A 3rd Trading Session
Energy futures are moving modestly lower for a 3rd trading session (Including last Friday) as indecision from OPEC and concerns of a post-Thanksgiving slowdown in demand combine to keep buyers at bay.
The upward sloping trend lines started when prices bottomed out November 1st (some 30% below current levels) are still intact, and if the bulls can hold on, there’s still a strong technical argument for higher prices in the weeks to come. Peg the $1.20 range for RBOB and $1.35 range for ULSD as must-hold levels for the bulls this week. A break of below those levels suggests we could see a quick 10-15 cents of downside as a correction of the furious November rally.
OPEC & friends were unable to come to an agreement and delayed an official announcement to Tuesday, and then again until Thursday, which seemed to spook the market and encouraged sellers to step back in Monday afternoon. Prior to the meeting it seemed inevitable that the cartel would at least extend its production cuts, but suddenly that “no brainer” option appears easier said than done.
There weren’t any new refinery shutdown notices in the past 24 hours, but there was some more bad news. A multiyear study done on Texans living near oil refineries suggests that cancer risks increase notably. That’s not necessarily a surprise given the volatile organic compounds involved in the refining process but a long term study of this type does add another argument for the anti-fossil fuel movement in addition to the climate change arguments that are becoming more mainstream. Meanwhile, a separate report suggests the EPA and other air-quality-monitoring agencies are under-estimating the pollution caused by refineries.
Similar to what we saw with European contracts in Friday’s report, the CFTC is showing money managers made increases in net length for WTI, RBOB and ULSD last week, jumping on the bandwagon as prices rallied to 8 month highs. WTI saw a mix of new long positions and short covering both contribute to those increases, but open interest remains near a 4 year low, as new competing contracts for oil based in Houston and in a few Asian markets makes the Cushing OK based contract less appealing, and the general enthusiasm for oil around the world continues to be subdued.
An EIA report this morning highlights the impact COVID shutdowns last spring had on the US petroleum trade as the country briefly reverted to a net importer of fuel, after reaching record high export levels in February.
Click here to download a PDF of today’s TACenergy Market Talk.
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Gasoline Futures Are Leading The Energy Complex Higher This Morning With 1.5% Gains So Far In Pre-Market Trading
Gasoline futures are leading the energy complex higher this morning with 1.5% gains so far in pre-market trading. Heating oil futures are following close behind, exchanging hands 4.5 cents higher than Friday’s settlement (↑1.3%) while American and European crude oil futures trade modestly higher in sympathy.
The world’s largest oil cartel is scheduled to meet this Wednesday but is unlikely they will alter their supply cuts regimen. The months-long rally in oil prices, however, has some thinking Saudi Arabia might being to ease their incremental, voluntary supply cuts.
Tropical storm Rina has dissolved over the weekend, leaving the relatively tenured Philippe the sole point of focus in the Atlantic storm basin. While he is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by the end of this week, most projections keep Philippe out to sea, with a non-zero percent chance he makes landfall in Nova Scotia or Maine.
Unsurprisingly the CFTC reported a 6.8% increase in money manager net positions in WTI futures last week as speculative bettors piled on their bullish bets. While $100 oil is being shoutedfromeveryrooftop, we’ve yet to see that conviction on the charts: open interest on WTI futures is far below that of the last ~7 years.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
The Energy Bulls Are On The Run This Morning, Lead By Heating And Crude Oil Futures
The energy bulls are on the run this morning, lead by heating and crude oil futures. The November HO contract is trading ~7.5 cents per gallon (2.3%) higher while WTI is bumped $1.24 per barrel (1.3%) so far in pre-market trading. Their gasoline counterpart is rallying in sympathy with .3% gains to start the day.
The October contracts for both RBOB and HO expire today, and while trading action looks to be pretty tame so far, it isn’t a rare occurrence to see some big price swings on expiring contracts as traders look to close their positions. It should be noted that the only physical market pricing still pricing their product off of October futures, while the rest of the nation already switched to the November contract over the last week or so.
We’ve now got two named storms in the Atlantic, Philippe and Rina, but both aren’t expected to develop into major storms. While most models show both storms staying out to sea, the European model for weather forecasting shows there is a possibility that Philippe gets close enough to the Northeast to bring rain to the area, but not much else.
The term “$100 oil” is starting to pop up in headlines more and more mostly because WTI settled above the $90 level back on Tuesday, but partially because it’s a nice round number that’s easy to yell in debates or hear about from your father-in-law on the golf course. While the prospect of sustained high energy prices could be harmful to the economy, its important to note that the current short supply environment is voluntary. The spigot could be turned back on at any point, which could topple oil prices in short order.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Gasoline And Crude Oil Futures Are All Trading Between .5% And .8% Lower To Start The Day
The energy complex is sagging this morning with the exception of the distillate benchmark as the prompt month trading higher by about a penny. Gasoline and crude oil futures are all trading between .5% and .8% lower to start the day, pulling back after WTI traded above $95 briefly in the overnight session.
There isn’t much in the way of news this morning with most still citing the expectation for tight global supply, inflation and interest rates, and production cuts by OPEC+.
As reported by the Department of Energy yesterday, refinery runs dropped in all PADDs, except for PADD 3, as we plug along into the fall turnaround season. Crude oil inventories drew down last week, despite lower runs and exports, and increased imports, likely due to the crude oil “adjustment” the EIA uses to reconcile any missing barrels from their calculated estimates.
Diesel remains tight in the US, particularly in PADD 5 (West Coast + Nevada, Arizona) but stockpiles are climbing back towards their 5-year seasonal range. It unsurprising to see a spike in ULSD imports to the region since both Los Angeles and San Francisco spot markets are trading at 50+ cent premiums to the NYMEX. We’ve yet to see such relief on the gasoline side of the barrel, and we likely won’t until the market switches to a higher RVP.