Early Stages Of Major Commodity Rally
The rally marches on for energy prices, with Brent crude reaching the $60 mark overnight, and refined products hitting fresh, one-year highs. Most contracts are now trading 70% higher than the low trades from November first, with a well-defined bullish trend line serving as a buying point during any number of attempted sell-offs. A Bloomberg article argues that we’re in the early stages of a major commodity rally as the vaccines start to unleash pent up demand around the world.
While the path upward is still clear, there’s not much more room to go until refined products face a major test at last February’s highs. If they can break that resistance, there’s a case to be made for a run towards $2, but if they fail, we could see some harsh selling as the complex is looking severely overbought and there are signs that the big funds may be jumping off the gasoline bandwagon.
Large speculators remain bullish on oil and diesel prices, but seem to think the gasoline price rally has outkicked its coverage based on last week’s Commitments of Traders report. Net length held by money managers (the large speculative category in the report) grew in WTI, Brent, ULSD and Gasoil contracts, but was cut by 22% in RBOB contracts on the week. It appears that some of those sellers may have been head-faked by the selloff to end January as prices continued to move higher after the report’s data was collected last Tuesday. That said, in years past, when the big funds decide the seasonal rally is over, they typically liquidate gasoline positions heavily over a period of a few weeks, which could end up being a factor that finally brings the three month long rally to an end.
Baker Hughes reported a net increase of four oil rigs operating in the U.S. last week, with the Permian basin up by six rigs, while other locations declined by two. That’s the eleventh consecutive week of increases in the U.S. oil rig count, with the Permian adding 43 of the total 68 rigs during that stretch. It’s also worth noting that in the summer of 2019, oil prices traded lower than they are today, and there were 400 more drilling rigs active than there are today, so there’s still plenty of room for activity, although most producers remain cautious given the weak demand environment.
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View AllEnergy Prices Up Over 2% Across The Board This Morning
Refined product futures traded in an 8-10 cent range yesterday with prompt heating oil settling up ~6 cents and RBOB ending up about flat. Oil prices clawed back some of the losses taken in the first two full trading days of the week, putting the price per barrel for US crude back over the $70 mark. Prices are up just over 2% across the board this morning, signifying confidence after the Senate passed the bipartisan debt ceiling bill last night.
The EIA reported crude oil inventories up 4.5 million barrels last week, aided by above-average imports, weakened demand, and a sizeable increase to their adjustment factor. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to release weekly through June and the 355 million barrels remaining in the SPR is now at a low not seen since September 1983. Exports increased again on the week and continue to run well above last year’s record-setting levels through the front half of the year. Refinery runs and utilization rates have increased to their highest points this year, both sitting just above year-ago rates.
Diesel stocks continue to hover around the low end of the 5-year range set in 2022, reporting a build of about half of what yesterday’s API data showed. Most PADDs saw modest increases last week but all are sitting far below average levels. Distillate imports show 3 weeks of growth trending along the seasonal average line, while 3.7 million barrels leaving the US last week made it the largest increase in exports for the year. Gasoline inventories reported a small decline on the week, also being affected by the largest jump in exports this year, leaving it under the 5-year range for the 11th consecutive week. Demand for both products dwindled last week; however, gas is still comfortably above average despite the drop.
The sentiment surrounding OPEC+’s upcoming meeting is they’re not likely to extend oil supply cuts, despite prices falling early in the week. OPEC+ is responsible for a significant portion of global crude oil production and its policy decisions can have a major impact on prices. Some members of OPEC+ have voluntarily cut production since April due to a waning economic outlook, but the group is not expected to take further action next week.
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Prices Are Mixed This Morning As The Potential Halt In U.S. Interest Rate Hikes
Bearish headlines pushed refined products and crude futures down again yesterday. Prompt RBOB closed the month at $2.5599 and HO at $2.2596 with WTI dropping another $1.37 to $68.09 and Brent losing 88 cents. Prices are mixed this morning as the potential halt in U.S. interest rate hikes and the House passing of the US debt ceiling bill balanced the impact of rising inventories and mixed demand signals from China.
The American Petroleum Institute reported crude builds of 5.2 million barrels countering expectations of a draw. Likewise, refined product inventories missed expectations and were also reported to be up last week with gasoline adding 1.891 million barrels and diesel stocks rising 1.849 million barrels. The market briefly attempted a push higher but ultimately settled with losses following the reported supply increases implying weaker than anticipated demand. The EIA will publish its report at 10am this morning.
LyondellBasell announced plans yesterday to delay closing of their Houston refinery, originally scheduled to shut operations by the end of this year, through Q1 2025. The company “remains committed to ceasing operation of its oil refining business” but the 289,000 b/d facility remaining online longer than expected will likely have market watchers adjusting this capacity back into their balance estimates.
Side note: there is still an ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Two oil refineries located east of Russia's major oil export terminals were targeted by drone attacks. The Afipsky refinery’s 37,000 b/d crude distillation unit was struck yesterday, igniting a massive fire that was later extinguished while the other facility avoided any damage. The attacks are part of a series of intensified drone strikes on Russian oil pipelines. Refineries in Russia have been frequently targeted by drones since the start of the military operation in Ukraine in February 2022.