Diesel Prices Are Trying To Lead The Energy Complex Higher This Morning

Market TalkThursday, Sep 29 2022
Pivotal Week For Price Action

Diesel prices are trying to lead the energy complex higher this morning, having rallied 35 cents in the past 3 days. Gasoline and oil prices seem to be unwilling participants in diesel’s attempted rally however, following stock markets back into the red after a big rally Wednesday.

Besides the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, refinery closures from maintenance and strikes across Europe are also adding a bullish factor for distillate prices this week.  It’s worth noting that the COVID impact on refineries is still coming into play, as facilities that put off projects 2 years ago when they were struggling to survive now have no choice but to catch back up in order to keep those facilities operating. 

Speaking of delayed maintenance: Valero is reportedly delaying maintenance at its Memphis TN refinery to (presumably) have more supply to send north on its river system that supplies much of the Ohio river valley during a period of unusually tight supply caused by other refinery outages. Meanwhile, most workers at the Husky refinery in Toledo were laid off this week, in another sign that that facility won’t be coming back online anytime soon after the deadly fire last week. Note the big drop in PADD 2 refinery runs, and the low PADD 2 inventory levels to see why suppliers are continuing to scramble in that market.

Speaking of which, gasoline prices in California are now higher than they were during the summer peak, as futures rallied and basis values held at the record-setting $2.45/gallon premium to RBOB Wednesday. Take a look at the PADD 5 inventories which touched a fresh 10-year low last week.  

While gasoline supplies are extremely tight, renewable energy supplies must be building rapidly as the LCFS credits that were the big reward for producers who can bring those products to California have plunged to a fresh 8 year low below $70/credit this week. Those credits are now worth less than half of what they were at the start of the year, and will provide a disappointing return to so many who raced to ramp up production (in several cases by shutting down their crude oil refineries) over the past 3 years. 

Renewable diesel has led the surge in production, but that product is not yet tracked on a weekly basis like traditional diesel or even ethanol is, so it’s hard to say where actual inventories are. On the other hand, it’s clear that traditional diesel stocks are pretty low as they have rallied sharply this week, with prompt values trading near a 50 cent premium to futures, and creating another scary forward curve for shippers still trying to recover from the backwardation extremes seen earlier in the year. 

Hurricane Ian continues to batter Florida after making landfall as a category 4 storm yesterday.  Damage assessments around the port of Tampa should start today, and the early indications from the Ft. Lauderdale area are that those facilities escaped major damage which will aid resupply as the storm passes. The revised path takes the storm further out to sea east of Jacksonville, which “should” keep those terminals from staying out of operation for long, and there’s a chance that this huge storm may have just threaded the needle crossing the entire state without making a direct hit on any of the major fuel ports. There’s another tropical depression that could get named in the next couple of days, but the projected path keeps it far out to sea and not a risk to land.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

Market Talk Update 09.29.2022

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Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkFriday, Feb 23 2024

The DOE Report Sparked A Solid Rally In Energy Futures Thursday, But That Upward Momentum Proved Short-Lived

The DOE report sparked a solid rally in energy futures Thursday, but that upward momentum proved short-lived as prices gave back those gains overnight, despite US equity markets surging to all-time highs.

The weekly inventory report showed US refiners are struggling to come back online from a busy maintenance season that was further complicated by January’s cold snap and the unexpected shut down at BP Whiting. Refinery utilization held near 80% on the week, which helped pull gasoline inventories lower despite sluggish demand and a surge in imports along the East Coast. Diesel demand showed a big recovery from last week’s ugly estimate, and when you factor in the missing 4-5% that doesn’t show up due to RD not being included in the reports, actual consumption looks much healthier than the report suggests.

Based on reports of restarts at several major refineries this week, we should see those utilization numbers pick up in next week’s report.

The EPA Thursday approved year-round E15 sales in 8 corn-growing states, despite the fact that the extra ethanol blends have been shown more to pollute more in the warm times of the year. The effective date was pushed back a year however in a show of election-year tight rope walking, which the EPA couched as ensuring that the move wouldn’t lead to a spike in fuel prices this summer.

Of course, the law of unintended consequences may soon be at play in a region that tends to be long gasoline supply for large parts of the year. Removing 5% of the gasoline demand could be another nail in some of the smaller/less complex refineries’ coffins, which would of course make fuel supply less secure, which contradicts one of the main arguments for making more 198 proof grain alcohol and selling it as fuel. Ethanol prices meanwhile continue to slump to multi-year lows this week as low corn prices continue to push unusually high production, and the delayed effective date of this ruling won’t help that.

While Nvidia’s chip mania is getting much of the credit for the surge in equity prices this week, there was also good news for many more companies in reports that the SEC was planning to drop its requirements on Scope 3 emissions reporting which is particularly useful since most people still can’t figure out what exactly scope 3 emissions really are.

In today’s segment of you can’t make this stuff up: The case of chivalry gone wrong with the BP/TA acquisition, and a ketchup caddy company caught spoofing electric capacity.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkThursday, Feb 22 2024

Week 7 - US DOE Inventory Recap

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkThursday, Feb 22 2024

RBOB And ULSD Futures Down Around 2.5 Cents After A Mixed Performance Wednesday

Refined products are leading the energy complex lower to start Thursday’s trading with both RBOB and ULSD futures down around 2.5 cents after a mixed performance Wednesday.

The API reported another large build in crude oil inventories last week, with inventories up more than 7 million barrels while gasoline inventories increased by 415,000 barrels and diesel stocks dropped by 2.9 million. The crude oil build was no doubt aided once again by the shutdown of BP’s Whiting refinery that takes nearly ½ million barrels/day of oil demand out of the market. That facility is said to be ramping up operations this week, while full run rates aren’t expected again until March. The DOE’s weekly report will be out at 11am eastern this morning.

Too much or not enough? Tuesday there were reports that the KM pipeline system in California was forced to shut down two-line segments and cut batches in a third due to a lack of storage capacity as heavy rains have sapped demand in the region. Wednesday there were new reports that some products ran out of renewable diesel because of those pipeline delays, bringing back memories of the early COVID lockdown days when an excess of gasoline caused numerous outages of diesel.

The Panama Canal Authority has announced $8.5 billion in sustainability investments planned for the next 5 years. Most of those funds are aimed at sustainability efforts like modernizing equipment and installing solar panels, while around $2 billion is intended for a better water management system to combat the challenges they’ve faced with lower water levels restricting transit by 50% or more in the past year. More importantly in the near term, forecasts for the end of the El Nino pattern that contributed to a record drought, and the beginning of a La Nina pattern that tends to bring more rain to the region are expected to help improve water levels starting this summer.

The bad news is that La Nina pattern, coupled with historically warm water temperature has Accuweather forecasters sounding “Alarm Bells” over a “supercharged” hurricane season this year. Other years with a similar La Nina were 2005 which produced Katrina, Rita and Wilma and 2020 when we ran out of names, and the gulf Coast was repeatedly pummeled but markets didn’t react much due to the COVID demand slump. Perhaps most concerning for the refining industry is that unlike the past couple of years when Florida had the bullseye, the Texas coast is forecast to be at higher risk this year.

RIN prices continued their slide Wednesday morning, trading down to 38 cents/RIN before finally finding a bid that pushed values back to the 41-42 cent range by the end of the day.

The huge slide in RIN values showed up as a benefit in Suncor’s Q4 earnings report this morning, as the Renewable Volume Obligation for the company dropped to $4.75/barrel vs $8.55/barrel in Q4 of 2022. Based on the continued drop so far in 2024, expect that obligation to be nearly cut in half again. Suncor continued the trend of pretty much every other refiner this quarter, showing a dramatic drop in margins from the record-setting levels in 2022, but unlike a few of its counterparts over the past week was able to maintain positive earnings. The company noted an increase in refining runs after recovering from the Christmas Eve blizzard in 2022 that took down its Denver facility for months but did not mention any of the environmental challenges that facility is facing.

Valero’s McKee refinery reported a flaring event Wednesday that impacted multiple unites and lasted almost 24 hours. Meanwhile, Total reported more flaring at its Pt Arthur facility as that plant continues to struggle through restart after being knocked offline by the January deep freeze.

Speaking of which, the US Chemical Safety board released an update on its investigation into the fire at Marathon’s Martinez CA renewable diesel plant last November, noting how the complications of start -up leave refineries of all types vulnerable.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.