Diesel Prices Are Trying To Drag The Rest Of The Energy Complex Higher This Morning

Market TalkThursday, Jul 28 2022
Pivotal Week For Price Action

Diesel prices are trying to drag the rest of the energy complex higher this morning as their weekly rally has now surpassed 40 cents in less than 4 days. Gasoline prices are resisting the pull higher so far, despite some positive demand signals in yesterday’s DOE report, and remain range-bound for now, while WTI is facing a big test near $100.   

We said yesterday morning that the ULSD contract looked like it was ready to make a run at $3.80 after breaking through resistance on the charts around $3.60 and it didn’t waste any time already reaching that mark this morning.  The last time ULSD touched $3.80 3 weeks ago, it dropped 20 cents the next day, so today’s tug of war with gasoline could prove pivotal.  A break and hold above $3.80 opens the door for another 40 cent run higher for diesel, while a failure sets up a drop to the lower end of the July trading range.

All sorts of news out of Washington that may influence markets as the Senate has made a surprise breakthrough on a bill that includes nearly $370 billion in energy and climate change programs, while the commerce department just reported it’s GDP estimate showing the US is now “not officially” in a recession with a 2nd straight quarter of contracting GDP.

Bad news is good news when it comes to the stock market reaction to FED policy, and it seems like the Chairman’s statement that the US economy shows signs of slowing yesterday was enough to send stocks rallying once again, as it implies that the pace of increase for interest rates is going to slow down after their largest increase in over 40 years. The big rally in stocks following that announcement seemed to spill over to the energy arena in the afternoon, but could also create more volatility if today’s confirmation of that economic slowdown sends the big money funds to the sidelines.

If you’re an energy bull, you may note that we’ve already lived through the recession, and yet yesterday’s DOE report showed a healthy recovery in fuel consumption which could mean the worst is behind us…not to mention that the world still doesn’t have a solution to replace Russian natural gas and distillate supplies.  

Notes from yesterday’s DOE Report:

US crude oil exports surged to an all-time high last week north of 4.5 million barrels per day. That means a total of roughly 32 million barrels of oil (more than 1.3 billion gallons) were sent overseas last week, which makes the inventory drop of 4.5 million barrels in total for the week suddenly less impressive. 

Refinery output dropped for a 2nd straight week, with 4 out of 4 PADDs declining, with the Midwest (PADD 2) leading the way with another major decline in run rates. Given the weakness in Group 3 and Chicago basis values, it doesn’t seem like anyone is worried about declining output in the middle of the country - most of which is unable to be exported – although this could spell trouble in the fall if rates don’t pick back up as Gulf Coast facilities seem to have their hands full trying to keep up with demand from Europe and the rest of the Americas.

Demand for gasoline and distillates were estimated to have climbed for a 2nd straight week putting both products back close to their seasonal 5 year averages after dropping below their seasonal range earlier in July. A big drop in gasoline imports, and the decline in refinery run rates are combining with that tick higher in demand to draw inventories lower after more than a month of gains. 

The inventory declines are most pronounced on the East Coast, which helps explain why RFG gasoline in New York is worth 50 cents more per gallon today than it is in Houston, and nearly 70 cents more than its conventional counterparts in the Midwest.

See charts below.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

Market Talk Update 7.28.22

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Market TalkThursday, Mar 28 2024

Energy Markets Are Ticking Modestly Higher Heading Into The Easter Weekend With Crude Oil Prices Leading The Way Up About $1.25/Barrel Early Thursday Morning

Energy markets are ticking modestly higher heading into the Easter Weekend with crude oil prices leading the way up about $1.25/barrel early Thursday morning, while gasoline prices are up around 2.5 cents and ULSD futures are about a penny.

Today is the last trading day for April HO and RBOB futures, an unusually early expiration due to the month ending on a holiday weekend. None of the pricing agencies will be active tomorrow since the NYMEX and ICE contracts are completely shut, so most rack prices published tonight will carry through Monday.

Gasoline inventories broke from tradition and snapped a 7 week decline as Gulf Coast supplies increased, more than offsetting the declines in PADDs 1, 2 and 5. With gulf coast refiners returning from maintenance and cranking out summer grade gasoline, the race is now officially on to move their excess through the rest of the country before the terminal and retail deadlines in the next two months. While PADD 3 run rates recover, PADD 2 is expected to see rates decline in the coming weeks with 2 Chicago-area refineries scheduled for planned maintenance, just a couple of weeks after BP returned from 7 weeks of unplanned repairs.

Although terminal supplies appear to be ample around the Baltimore area, we have seen linespace values for shipping gasoline on Colonial tick higher in the wake of the tragic bridge collapse as some traders seem to be making a small bet that the lack of supplemental barge resupply may keep inventories tight until the barge traffic can move once again. The only notable threat to refined product supplies is from ethanol barge traffic which will need to be replaced by truck and rail options, but so far that doesn’t seem to be impacting availability at the rack. Colonial did announce that they would delay the closure of its underutilized Baltimore north line segment that was scheduled for April 1 to May 1 out of an “abundance of caution”.

Ethanol inventories reached a 1-year high last week as output continues to hold above the seasonal range as ethanol distillers seem to be betting that expanded use of E15 blends will be enough to offset sluggish gasoline demand. A Bloomberg article this morning also highlights why soybeans are beginning to displace corn in the subsidized food to fuel race.

Flint Hills reported a Tuesday fire at its Corpus Christi West facility Wednesday, although it’s unclear if that event will have a material impact on output after an FCC unit was “stabilized” during the fire. While that facility isn’t connected to Colonial, and thus doesn’t tend to have an impact on USGC spot pricing, it is a key supplier to the San Antonio, Austin and DFW markets, so any downtime may be felt at those racks.

Meanwhile, P66 reported ongoing flaring at its Borger TX refinery due to an unknown cause. That facility narrowly avoided the worst wildfires in state history a few weeks ago but is one of the frequent fliers on the TCEQ program with upsets fairly common in recent years.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

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Most Energy Contracts Are Ticking Lower For A 2nd Day After A Trickle Of Selling Picked Up Steam Tuesday

Most energy contracts are ticking lower for a 2nd day after a trickle of selling picked up steam Tuesday. ULSD futures are down a dime from Monday’s highs and RBOB futures are down 7 cents.

Diesel prices continue to look like the weak link in the energy chain, with futures coming within 1 point of their March lows overnight, setting up a test of the December lows around $2.48 if that resistance breaks down. Despite yesterday’s slide, RBOB futures still look bullish on the weekly charts, with a run towards the $3 mark still looking like a strong possibility in the next month or so.

The API reported crude stocks increased by more than 9 million barrels last week, while distillates were up 531,000 and gasoline stocks continued their seasonal decline falling by 4.4 million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.

RIN values have recovered to their highest levels in 2 months around $.59/RIN for D4 and D6 RINs, even though the recovery rally in corn and soybean prices that had helped lift prices off of the 4 year lows set in February has stalled out. Expectations for more biofuel production to be shut in due to weak economics with lower subsidy values seems to be encouraging the tick higher in recent weeks, although prices are still about $1/RIN lower than this time last year.

Reminder that Friday is one of only 3 annual holidays in which the Nymex is completely shut, so no prices will be published, but it’s not a federal holiday in the US so banks will be open.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.