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Commodity Futures Has Created Whipsaw Action In Physical Markets For Refined And Renewable Fuels

Friday, Mar 11 2022
Market Talk

This week has already seen record high prices, the biggest daily increase, biggest daily decrease and biggest trading ranges ever for refined product contracts, so it’s not too exciting to say that we’ve already seen double digit moves both higher and lower in the overnight session.  

Just like most people say about their own state’s weather (as if they’re the only ones that experience this) if you don’t like the market move, just wait 15 minutes.

The chaos in commodity futures has created whipsaw action in physical markets for refined and renewable fuels, RINs and carbon credits, not to mention little things like global stocks and currencies.  There’s not much signaling an end to the volatility yet, and the traditional March Madness tips off next week. 

See below for a short list of factors that have kept the volatility at extreme levels this week.

Bearish Factors

Blow-off Top this week keeps speculators at bay

Putin signals "positive shift" in Ukraine talks  (does anyone still believe him?)

UAE signals desire to boost output

Venezuela sanctions may be eased

Russia still honoring energy contracts

High prices will hurt demand

Bullish Factors

Another attack on a Saudi Refinery

Iran Nuclear negotiations called off due to Russian Meddling

OPEC & Friends sticking with output plan (Russia & Saudi flexing on US)

White House says Venezuela Sanctions won't be eased

No short term replacement for Russian energy

US Supplies were already low before the war


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