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A Strong Rally Dwindles

Thursday, Aug 6 2020
Market Talk

What started out as a strong rally yesterday dwindled as we approached settlement, leaving gas and diesel futures with gains of less than a penny. Although the DOE reported a smaller draw in crude oil inventories than the API estimates, the 7.37 million barrel drop was not insignificant, bumping the American crude benchmark 50 cents to five month highs.

The EIA published an interesting note highlighting difference in the virus’s impact on gasoline and diesel demand. Gas took the harder hit back in March as stay-at-home orders came down across the nation while essential businesses, many of which require diesel to run, continued to operate.

The next 48 hours looks clear on the hurricane front. The tropical depression off the mid-Atlantic coast has 0% chance of development over the next few days and there are no new areas of interest so far today.

The Lebanon catastrophe continues to add layers as investigators and national leaders put the magnifying glass to the small country. Negligence, a  Russian tanker, and even a petition for France to take control have all made an appearance in the saga’s latest installment. Right now it looks like impact to energy markets will be minimal as the situation unfolds.

Yesterday’s pullback from the large gains it boasted early was likely due to technical reasons. So far, it seems the complex will remain in its two-month long trading range and will require some strong fundamental changes or some buyers/sellers willing to push the chart pattern until it breaks. For today, it seems energy futures will continue upward with gas and diesel up half a cent and crude just positive.

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