A Pivotal Week On The Charts
Energy prices faced their biggest selloff since the first trading day of January overnight as rising COVID case counts in China and spreading lockdowns across Europe appear to be hitting demand, dampening the bullish enthusiasm that’s gripped the market since early November. This next week looks like it will be pivotal on the charts, as we’re seeing a rounding top for most of the petroleum contracts that have not yet broken below the bullish trend lines. If prices can manage to recover today, there’s still a case to be made that the bulls are in control. If they dip much further, the charts will favor another 10 cents of downside for products in short order.
The charts below show the dramatic change in the forward curves for oil and diesel prices over the past month as the price rally has pushed prices into backwardation. That change could be a double-edged sword for flat prices, as it takes the storage buyers out of the market, which also helps to encourage reductions in inventory levels. That strength in the curve also seems contradictory to the demand patterns playing out across Europe, Asia and the U.S., as new lockdown measures are hampering demand all over. The Saudi’s decision to cut one million barrels/day of oil production was enough to override that demand drop in January, but it’s looking like something else will be necessary to prevent a larger selloff now.
The DOE’s weekly inventory report is due out at 11 a.m. Eastern today, after the rare two-day delay this week caused by the inauguration. In normal years, we expect to see demand increasing sharply in the back-half of January as the country shakes off the holiday hangover effect and gets back to work. This year it seems like that bounce may have to wait until the vaccine rollout starts outpacing the impacts of lockdowns.
Oddly enough, California’s energy commission didn’t take Wednesday off like the DOE did, and reported that the state’s production of gasoline and diesel plummeted to multi-month lows (see charts below). The sharp decrease in refinery output appears to be in response to swelling inventory levels over the previous two weeks as the demand has dropped sharply due to the ongoing COVID fallout.
More bad news from refiners: Irving Oil announced another layoff, this time for 60 employees at its St. John refinery, a major fuel supplier to the U.S. East Coast, due to “the collapse in demand for motor fuels.” Meanwhile, nearly 200 union workers at the Marathon refinery in St. Paul Park, MN walked off the job last night, apparently waiting for the coldest time of the year to start picketing. The refinery is reportedly continuing operations as normal, and even if it wasn’t, given its location and size isn’t likely to create much of an impact on either the Group 3 or Chicago basis markets this time of year.
The RIN market continues to rally, even as grain prices have pulled back this week, as last minute moves by the outgoing EPA administration regarding small refinery waivers, and emissions permitting, were postponed by federal court rulings, which should allow enough time for the new administration to nullify them.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
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Energy Markets Are Ticking Modestly Higher This Morning But Remain Well Off The Highs Set Early Thursday
Energy markets are ticking modestly higher this morning but remain well off the highs set early Thursday following the reports that Russia was temporarily banning most refined product exports.
The law of government intervention and unintended consequences: Russian officials claim the export ban is an effort to promote market stability, and right on cue, its gasoline prices plummeted a not-so-stable 10% following the news.
There’s a saying that bull markets don’t end due to bad news, they end when the market stops rallying on good news. It’s possible that if ULSD futures continue lower after failing to sustain yesterday’s rally, or this morning’s, we could be seeing the end of the most recent bull run. That said, it’s still much too soon to call the top here, particularly with a steepening forward curve leaving prices susceptible to a squeeze, and the winter-demand months still ahead of us. Short term we need to see ULSD hold above $3.30 next week to avoid breaking its weekly trend line.
The sell-off in RIN values picked up steam Thursday, with 2023 D4 and D6 values dropping to the $1.02 range before finally finding a bid later in the session and ending the day around $1.07.
Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to be named today, before making landfall on the North Carolina coast tomorrow. This isn’t a major storm, and there aren’t any refineries in its path, so it’s unlikely to do much to disrupt supply, but it will dump heavy rain several of the major East Coast markets so it will likely hamper demand through the weekend. The other storm system being tracked by the NHC is now given 90% odds of being named next week, but its predicted path has shifted north as it moves across the Atlantic, which suggests it is more likely to stay out to sea like Nigel did than threaten either the Gulf or East Coasts.
Exxon reported an upset at its Baytown refinery that’s been ongoing for the past 24 hours. It’s still unclear which units are impacted by this event, and whether or not it will have meaningful impacts on output. Total’s Pt Arthur facility also reported an upset yesterday, but that event lasted less than 90 minutes. Like most upsets in the region recently, traders seem to be shrugging off the news with gulf coast basis values not moving much.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
The Yo-Yo Action In Diesel Continues With Each Day Alternating Between Big Gains And Big Losses So Far This Week
The yo-yo action in diesel continues with each day alternating between big gains and big losses so far this week. Today’s 11-cent rally is being blamed on reports that Russia is cutting exports of refined products effective immediately. It’s been a while since Russian sabre rattling has driven a noticeable price move in energy futures, after being a common occurrence at the start of the war. Just like tweets from our prior President however, these types of announcements seem to have a diminishing shelf-life, particularly given how the industry has adapted to the change in Russian export flows, so don’t be surprised if the early rally loses steam later today.
The announcement also helped gasoline prices rally 5-cents off of their overnight lows, and cling to modest gains just above a penny in the early going. Before the announcement, RBOB futures were poised for a 5th straight day of losses.
IF the export ban lasts, that would be good news for US refiners that have seen their buyers in south American countries – most notably Brazil – reduce their purchases in favor of discounted barrels from Russia this year.
US refinery runs dropped below year-ago levels for the first time in 6 weeks, with PADDS 1, 2 and 3 all seeing large declines at the start of a busy fall maintenance schedule. Oil inventories continued to decline, despite the drop-in run rates and a big increase in the adjustment factor as oil exports surged back north of 5 million barrels/day. Keep in mind that as recently as 2011 the US only produced 5 million barrels of oil every day, and exports were mostly banned until 2016, so to be sending this many barrels overseas is truly a game changer for the global market.
Chicken or the egg? Cushing OK oil stocks dropped below year-ago levels for the first time since January last week, which may be caused by the return of backwardation incenting shippers to lower inventory levels, the shift to new WTI Midland and Houston contracts as the export market expands. Of course, the low inventory levels are also blamed for causing the backwardation in crude oil prices, and the shift to an export market may keep inventories at the NYMEX hub lower for longer as fewer shippers want to go inland with their barrels.
Refined product inventories remain near the bottom end of their seasonal ranges, with a healthy recovery in demand after last week’s holiday hangover helping keep stocks in check. The biggest mover was a large jump in PADD 5 distillates, which was foreshadowed by the 30 cent drop in basis values the day prior. The big story for gasoline on the week was a surge in exports to the highest level of the year, which is helping keep inventories relatively tight despite the driving season having ended 2 weeks ago.
As expected, the FED held rates yesterday, but the open market committee also included a note that they expected to raise rates one more time this year, which sparked a selloff in equity markets that trickled over into energy prices Wednesday afternoon. The correlation between energy and equities has been non-existent of late, and already this morning we’re seeing products up despite equities pointing lower, so it doesn’t look like the FOMC announcement will have a lasting impact on fuel prices this time around.